Very interesting article about the development of tactics on The Guardian website, here. How would Ardija function playing a 4-6-0 formation - or did they try and fail exactly that last season?

GGOA has been doing some statistical browsing through the Squirrels' recent results, an initially unpromising activity which has revealed an interesting fact - that it's the team's poor home form that has in recent weeks prevented them from moving away from the bottom of the table. The last half dozen home fixtures have yielded just a single point for Ardija, when Denis Marques' spectacular long-range shot gained a draw with Kashiwa Reysol at the end of August.

Other than that, however, games at Komaba and Kumagaya have been a consistent disaster area for the men in orange, as Gamba Osaka swamped them at the end of June; the two mid-August clashes with Vissel Kobe and Kashima Antlers were awful - and so were the recent encounters with Jubilo Iwata and JEF United. Away from home, though, and things start to look a little healthier. Most recently of course comes the 2-0 triumph over Yokohama F Marinos on Saturday - but ironically the outstanding result of the year took place in an "away" game against local rivals and champions-elect Urawa Reds, beaten 1-0 at Saitama Stadium thanks to Hiroshi Morita's delicious finish.

The low-point of 2007 was the humiliation of a 5-0 drubbing at the hands of a weakened Nagoya Grampus 8 side, but prior to that the Squirrels had on their travels picked up useful and hard-fought points at Shimizu S-Pulse, Jubilo and Kashiwa. So if an improvement is to be made it needs to be at home, with the last Squirrels game to be staged at Komaba first on the list - against Omiya's bogey team Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

Last Six Home Games

30 Jun v Gamba 0-3
15 Aug v Kobe 1-3
19 Aug v Kashima 1-2
29 Aug v Kashiwa 1-1
15 Sep v Jubilo 0-2
22 Sep v JEF 0-1

Last Six Away Games

09 Jun v Kashiwa 0-0
20 Jun v Jubilo 0-0
11 Aug v S-Pulse 2-2
25 Aug v Nagoya 0-5
01 Sep v Urawa 1-0
29 Sep v Marinos 2-0

Squirrels midfielder Chikara Fujimoto has written controversially and extensively on his blog to defend the team's continued use of counter-attacking football, in spite of the poor results achieved throughout the season and particularly in recent weeks. Fujimoto describes how, following Saturday's 1-0 home defeat to JEF United, he was asked by a reporter why Omiya were apparently unable or unwilling to modify their tactical approach, even when the visitors had taken the lead just after the half-hour mark.

His response was effectively that a team should be able to use a consistent style of play throughout a match, only resorting to change in the last few minutes if necessary. Furthermore, the Ardija captain went on to say that the players as a group felt that the established ideal Omiya style of solid defence and counter-attacking play was the best way to achieve results in the remainder of the season. This is of course a view that ties in with the football that the Squirrels have played since Fujimoto arrived at the club prior to their first-ever J1 campaign in 2005.

That year and in 2006, however, coach Toshiya Miura's teams appeared to have just enough creativity and movement to take the pressure off the defence and to create sufficient chances. The players who were key to making that system work were the wide midfielders, whose job it is in a counter-attacking team to exploit space left by an opponent that is pressing forward. Ironically, in 2005 that chiefly meant Fujimoto himself, with Daigo Kobayashi and then later Hayato Hashimoto coming onto the scene last season.

Following the departure of Miura, under Robert Verbeek and Satoru Sakuma it is precisely those players - along with midfield lynchpin Yosuke Kataoka - who have underperformed so much in 2007. Daigo has admittedly had an injury-hit year, but even when fit has been far less effective than the man who at the start of his Ardija career seemed to contribute an assist or a goal every week. While Hashimoto has been in and out of the team, he too has notably failed to build upon the series of promising contributions which he made in the final two months of 2006.

But the uncomfortable reality is that it is arguably captain Chikara who has been the least effective of the trio. A single assist against Nagoya Grampus 8 and a penalty in the home defeat by Ventforet Kofu are an extremely disappointing return for a player who remains a first-team regular. As such, in the light of the team's position in the J1 standings with just eight matches remaining, Fujimoto's defence of the current system begs the question whether his team-mates are actually able to execute that style of play to the required standard. Alternatively, many Squirrels fans are now wondering if he himself should take responsibility for his potentially fatally poor performances this year and step down to the substitutes' bench.

After this article on the goalkeepers last week, Steve here continues his look at the current Squirrels squad and tries to forecast what will happen to each of the players at the end of the season: will they stay or will they go? Who will be playing for Omiya Ardija in 2008? This time he focuses on the defenders.

Yasuhiro Hato - I hope he goes and maybe his ego and past reputation might encourage him and an unsuspecting J1 team to pick him up. He was one of the major Satoru Sakuma signings of 2006 and repaid his (speculative) big contract by being a non-factor in 2006 and a key goat in 2007. To be fair, the past couple of games have seen an upturn in form for the beleaguered defender and the fire he showed in getting in Urawa keeper Ryota Tsuzuki's face after he pushed Naoto Sakurai in the back shows that there is a glimmer of heart in the Grinch that stole Soccer for Omiya fans. Either way, the Ardija front office must see that he is not a good return for their money - but I say there's a 40% chance of Hato staying if Omiya remain in J1, 10% if they drop to J2.

Daisuke Tomita - After the recent downturn in his play, it's more likely he might stick around. Was arguably the team's best player under Robert Verbeek, so he might be gone as well. However, he does show a lot of flexibility along the back line. I imagine his price tag is a bit lower due to his under-the-radar status. I'm inclined to say it's more than likely he stays: 65%-35%.



Daisuke Tomita and some Reds guy

Leandro - Not much of a thinker... he has good skills but a bad mind. Is no Toninho, who arguably wasn't much of a thinker either - but Leandro definitely does have some untapped skills. The assist for Hiroshi Morita against Reds was a brilliant play of the type that he has failed to produce at any other time during the season. Leandro's on a one-year loan and I'm not sure really if he'll come back... it depends on how cheap he is. I'd say there's a 30% chance of him staying.

Takuro Nishimura - He is the type of player that will be at home in J2, which is probably his level of competence - whether it's with Omiya remains to be seen. Again to be fair, the team has settled in the back with the older Nishimura in the line-up. Can be maddening to watch at times and he's not my favourite player by a long shot, but when he reacts and plays instead of over-thinking he can be dangerous driving along the wing. 50-50 he stays or goes.

Terukazu Tanaka, Haruki Nishimura, Akira Ishigame - Young and cheap. Tanaka has had a fairly tough experience of being a full-time fringe first-teamer. The last four games were especially important in showing that he is a young man who has a way to go to becoming a solid J1 starter. Nishimura is a project who hasn't been featured. Ishigame is a question mark because of the awful pre-season injury that effectively ended his 2007 campaign and possibly his career. Tanaka 100% will stay, Nishimura 95%, Ishigame... no verdict.



Yusuke Murayama ponders his future

Yusuke Murayama, Takashi Hirano - I think they were moves more geared for next year's drop... neither has what it takes for J1 and J2 seems more up their alley. The few moments I saw of both has me believing that Murayama is the one that has enough game to make an impact on future Omiya teams. Hirano looked dramatically over-matched in his brief spell against Kashiwa Reysol. Let's say Murayama is 50-50 depending on the rental / contract terms, whereas Hirano is unfortunately 65% staying... (maybe it's just rust).

Seiichiro Okuno, Yasunari Hiraoka - Two of the old veterans who have not really gotten any playing time at all this year. With the inclusion of youth team members in the satellite games, it looks like there is really no opportunity for the old war horses to get any action. Hiraoka was this close to getting the axe at the end of last season and Okuno has managed to get injured every time he has a shot at the first team. Okuno has a 30% chance of staying, Hiraoka 15% (unless he starts paying NTT - then it's probably 30%).

Friend of GGOA Steve has been taking a look at the current Squirrels squad and trying to forecast what will happen to each of the players at the end of the season: will they stay or will they go? Who will be playing for Omiya next year? A short series of Squirrel's Eye View posts begins here with a run through the Ardija goalkeepers.

Hiroki Aratani - When one first looks at Aratani, you have to figure he'll definitely leave if the team drops to J2. He's approaching his golden years as a keeper (32-35) and he's conceded an average of less than a goal a game this year - which is better than more heralded players such as Seigo Narazaki or Eiji Kawashima. What makes his departure a greater possibility is the looming promotion of Consadole Sapporo and old boss Toshiya Miura, who has a stable of young keepers who could use a veteran presence.

But what might make it difficult for the domed one to leave is a history of nine years as a keeper for Omiya. He's a lifelong member of the Squirrel Nation and his family is settled in the area. There also is a huge issue with an arm that doesn't seem to want to heal, which might drive his market price down. I'd rate his chances of leaving at 50-50.... it's an age-old question of career vs heart.



Takahiro Takagi enjoys a good laugh

Koji Ezumi - Recent performances show that the big man is sorely lacking in the abilities required to be a J1 keeper. The jury is out, however, on whether or not he could be the guy to handle a J2 season. The positives to this kid are that he has size and is still relatively young-ish at 29. The downsides are too numerous to mention, but I will anyway: he has no mobility or response and his kicking is tragic. Should he leave? Absolutely. Will he leave? I'd say it's 70-30 that you'll see him in pale pink or baby blue next year.

Nobuhisa Kobayashi - The perfect J2 third choice keeper. He's not much of a challenge and can step in and make practice games interesting. The team tried to get rid of him once and probably will again. When you beg a club to let you come back and don't do much with the chance, that's a good sign that you aren't long for this career. 80% chance that he'll be out the door.

Kunihiro Shibasaki - Who knows what the young signing brings to the table? I imagine, though, that he will get another year to see if he's a player or not. Will he see playing time next year? I doubt it. Will he be a good guy to have in reserve? Likely. 90% staying.



Is it just me, or is Tatsuya Enomoto’s hair really annoying?

And two more for good measure...

Takahiro Takagi - I highly doubt Miura will let the kid go from his loan spell at Sapporo without a fight, which is unfortunate because he looks like the perfect guy to lead Omiya back to J1 if the dreaded drop happens. There are two reasons why Consadole might not take him back for another year:

1. There are a plethora of fine pedigree young keepers at Sapporo, including Yuya Sato who is a tender 21 years of age

2. You could see Miura deciding on a more mature player to man the nets in J1. Miura is known for being risk-averse when it comes to J1 selection and this could be the case next year too

One possibility for Omiya might be a kind of swap involving Takagi and last year's #1 for Consadole, Takuto Hayashi. It also remains to be seen if Omiya still retain the rights to Takagi. I'd say it's 95% that he won't be back.

Kota Ogi - On the face of it, it looks like the 24-year-old Vissel Kobe man is here just for a short time. However, with Tatsuya Enomoto entrenched between the posts following his close-season move from Yokohama F Marinos, it seems like Kobe might be looking ahead to next year and developing the young lad with a few months of live fire at Omiya. It seems like departures from Vissel have been tailored to squads with little hope of being in J1: Atsuhiro Miura going to Yokohama FC is an obvious example, so don't be surprised if this move was made with next year in mind. 50-50 he stays.

Two days after the disaster of the 2-1 defeat at home to Kashima Antlers, the Squirrel Nation is still trying to come to terms with the nature of the team's capitulation. Scanning the supporters' websites and blogs, it is plain to see the shock and disappointment felt by many Ardija fans - not at the result itself, so much as the apparent listlessness and lack of commitment displayed by the Omiya players.

This is perhaps best exemplified by the utterly bizarre behaviour of stand-in goalkeeper Koji Ezumi, booked for time-wasting just moments after Antlers' playmaker Mitsuo Ogasawara had been sent off with the score standing at 1-1. The fans' argument goes that if Ezumi possesses so little understanding of the simple dynamic of a football match - let alone of his team's broader predicament in needing to scrap for every available point - the former Oita Trinita man really has no business playing at J1 level.

Another player to feel the wrath of the Squirrels supporters is captain and midfielder Chikara Fujimoto, although to some extent this is because he has at least been brave enough to post on his own blog since Sunday's game; something that none of the other squad members have apparently thought necessary or worthy of their time (yes, Daigo Kobayashi and Daisuke Tomita, GGOA is talking about you).



Daigo, doing something

Some fans posted comments to the effect that they wish they hadn't bothered making the lengthy trek up to Kumagaya, while one woman was seemingly in tears at the poor quality of Omiya's performance - generally held to be the worst since the club moved up to J1 for the 2005 season - and was insistent that her young son not be exposed again to such dreadful, passionless fare. And perhaps most tellingly, one emotion that has been frequently expressed since Sunday evening is envy: envy of the Kashima support, who were able to cheer on a team utterly intent upon winning the match, despite the dismissal of a key player in Ogasawara.

Why didn't the Omiya players show such determination? Why has the defence fallen apart since the departure of Robert Verbeek and the installation of Satoru Sakuma? Why have so many important members of the squad - the ineffective Fujimoto, left back Yasuhiro Hato, central defender / defensive midfielder Yosuke Kataoka - failed to perform not only against the Antlers, but throughout the year?

Why do none of them seem to care that much?



Chikara Fujimoto defends another Kashima attack

The supporters do not have answers to any of these questions, while the club itself seems intent on offering up only a blandly cheerful face: the Kashima game was Kota Yoshihara's 200th appearance in the top flight! The new signing from Shonan Bellmare's reserves who is supposed to be sorting out the team's defensive worries, Yosuke Murayama, played in Monday's friendly against a team of university students! Who will score the team's 100th goal in J1? Who cares?

Not the Squirrel Nation, for whom the nightmare of Sakuma's appointment as coach seems to be coming true with alarming rapidity. The players by all accounts wanted rid of Robert Verbeek after half a season, but the evidence of Sunday would suggest that his successor has managed to lose their trust in approximately a week. And Omiya Ardija has turned into a club in crisis as a result.

The most important question of all, however, has to be: can the squad turn things around? After all, no team was ever relegated in August and indeed a glance at the fixture list would indicate that the last five fixtures of the season include potentially winnable matches against other struggling teams like Yokohama FC, FC Tokyo, Oita Trinita and Ventforet Kofu. The Kashima game must be used as a watershed, an opportunity to wipe the slate clean and to start to pick up points, beginning at Nagoya on Saturday. Otherwise, the decline to the end of the year and J2 will be slow and painful for players and supporters alike.

With fans of the Squirrels reeling from the shock dismissal of coach Robert Verbeek just days before the J1 season re-starts with an already difficult-looking match at Shimizu S-Pulse, Go! Go! Omiya Ardija here takes a look at what is undoubtedly the most controversial episode to hit the club since promotion to Japan's top flight at the end of 2004...

Verbeek arrived in Japan from employment at the FA of Singapore, confirmed as replacement for the outgoing Ardija coach Toshiya Miura in the last few days of December 2006 and accompanied by a new assistant in the shape of Jun Nakamura from the backroom staff at Kyoto. The Miura era seemed to run out of steam over the latter part of last year and, in the end, his departure for Consadole Sapporo was regarded as a positive thing for and by all concerned.



Hey good-lookin’

Certainly, the perspective of Ardija fans was that, much as he had achieved in taking a mid-ranking second-tier team up into the elite of Japanese club football, Miura's team was looking increasingly lacking in inspiration. After three years it was time for a change and Verbeek - a magic word in the history of Omiya Ardija, although Robert always acknowledged that he had far less experience than his older brother, the legendary Pim - was selected by management as the man to take the Squirrels on to the next level.

At the same time, however, there were strong rumours that the Dutchman was operating on a particularly restricted budget, the club having overspent twelve months previously in a vain attempt to establish themselves in the top half of J1. Striker Enilton and central defender Leandro were the main new arrivals on the playing side - but in truth, an inexperienced and comparatively unknown coach combined with a weak-looking squad scarcely suggested that 2007 was going to be a year of tremendous success.

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The instinctive pre-season optimism of the fans was therefore based more on a sense of anticipation that they would no longer have to watch a dour Miura side, rather than anything more positive. Even so, it was a shock to see what a poor and incoherent-looking team the Squirrels appeared in the early stages of the new campaign, most notably in lacklustre home defeats by FC Tokyo and Saturday's opponents S-Pulse. While four straight losses in March were followed by some signs of improvement at Kashima Antlers and the first win of the season at home to Nagoya Grampus 8, nevertheless, there were fan protests following a woeful defeat to Ventforet Kofu at the end of April.

With what now appears a particularly powerful irony, these were directed at the perceived villain of the piece: not coach Verbeek, who to an extent was regarded as a victim of circumstances and someone needing time to bed in to an unfamiliar situation, but at the man who has ultimately replaced him in charge of team affairs. Then more or less the club's chief scout-cum-General Manager, Satoru Sakuma held the purse strings and was viewed by the supporters as being responsible for the Squirrels' seeming inability to compete on the field. The fact that Sakuma was an employee of sponsoring organisation NTT only served to deepen the suspicion with which he was regarded.



Robert Verbeek mulls over the draw with Marinos

The improvement began with a gutsy, deserved draw in the Saitama derby, Verbeek by this time having abandoned his preferred 4-4-2 formation in favour of a more defensive 4-5-1 which proved hard for a good number of stronger teams to break down. Even tough-looking fixtures like away games at Kawasaki Frontale, Kashiwa Reysol and Jubilo Iwata yielded a point apiece - but despite an unbeaten run of eight games, it was clear to all observers that this was an Omiya side that had simply forgotten how to score goals.

Enilton, a striker with a respectable enough scoring record at clubs such as Palmeiras and Atletico Mineiro, was reduced to the role of a bit-part player; Toshiya Miura's forgotten man Kota Yoshihara picked up more playing time under the new coach, but barely managed any more goals; the likes of Salles, Manabu Wakabayashi and Hiroshi Morita all achieved about as much as expected... almost nothing. Verbeek was without doubt hindered by the long term absence through injury of playmaker Daigo Kobayashi, but equally kept several more creative members of the squad - Hayato Hashimoto and the utterly blameless Yusuke Shimada in particular - on the sidelines, as Omiya 2007 proceeded to make Omiya 2005 look like Brazil 1982.

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What now seems clear, though, is that although the events of March to June might have sowed the seeds of Robert Verbeek's downfall, the real reasons for his dismissal lie in the July training camp and its aftermath. An obviously angry and frustrated Kota Yoshihara spoke in Gunma of the "crisis atmosphere" in the squad - coincidentally or otherwise the same phrase later used by Sakuma himself - after a "first-team-against-reserves" practice game that had yielded almost no chances created or shots on target. And by this time, two aspects of Verbeek's communications strategy were grating with the players. Firstly, it was obvious to all that his up-beat positivism was simply not being reflected in results or performances; and secondly, this attitude contradicted the growing frequency of the coach's calls for new strikers to be added to the playing staff.

Combine those factors and the outcome was a group of players whose levels of motivation and of belief in the methods of their boss were getting lower and lower. Moreover, it also served almost to guarantee that the existing group of strikers would not have the confidence to find the net on the rare occasions when chances were created for them. It should be remembered at this point that, like Enilton, ex-international Yoshihara has in the past had a reasonable record in front of goal - something that Verbeek singularly failed to draw out of his player.



Sakuma and President Watanabe speak to the press

At least according to Sakuma and club president Seigo Watanabe, the friendly matches against Toyo University, Meiji University and Yokogawa Musashino - plus the satellite league match with Urawa Reds - were not just run-outs to keep the players ticking over before the re-start of the J1 schedule. They were intended instead to provide a serious yardstick with which to measure the development of the team post-Tsumagoi.

As has been reported here on GGOA, the performances and the results achieved in those fixtures were a disaster, especially the 6-0 humiliation of a more or less full-strength Ardija team by a young Reds side. The lifelessness of the Squirrels' display in that game also highlighted not only the extent to which the camp had been an ill-focused waste of effort - but also, crucially, the chasm which by that point existed between Verbeek and the squad.

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So Robert Verbeek will say that he never had the players he wanted, or indeed that he was told he would have. Club management's take on the situation is that their coach had "lost the dressing room" - that the players' lack of faith in the Verbeek regime by now rendered it impossible for them to go out and get the required results and, to be fair to Sakuma and Watanabe, this perception goes a long way towards explaining the timing of their decision to fire the Dutchman.

They could have acted after the defeat to Gamba Osaka, but elected to support him; after all, it would hardly be unheard of or controversial for the coach of a club third bottom of the league to be given the sack at the start of a mid-season break. But the breakdown of a relationship between coach and players is notoriously hard to recover from and the broader economic context of the new stadium development increases still further the external pressure for results.

Of course, the question "Were the club right to sack Robert Verbeek?" is a very long way indeed from being the same as "Were they right to appoint Satoru Sakuma?" It is necessary to draw a distinction between the fans' shock caused by Verbeek's sudden departure and the full-on panic brought about by the identity of his seemingly wildly under-qualified successor. But with the sixteen most important matches in the club's short history about to get underway, staying in J1 is not now for Omiya Ardija merely a goal. It is an obligation.